Alliance Formation in Civil Wars

"Although many scholars have studied the origins of interstate alliances, no one has answered the question of how warring groups choose their allies in civil wars - until now. Using insights from realist international relations theory, Fotini Christia convincingly shows that balance-of-power considerations drive the alliance decisions of armed groups, which simultaneously try to maximize their chances of victory and their share of the spoils. When these two goals conflict, groups switch sides with little conscience or consistency: today's valued friends are often yesterday's deadly foes. Drawing on extensive field work in Afghanistan and Bosnia, as well as statistical analysis of all multiparty civil wars, Christia's fine book is a model of multimethod research that will make a lasting contribution to the literatures on alliance formation and civil wars." - Alexander Downes, George Washington University "Christia provides a rigorous and compelling explanation for the puzzle of alliance formation and group fragmentation in multiparty civil wars. She demonstrates that they are driven by balancing rather than ideological or identity considerations, and shows that 'identity narratives' are ex-post instrumentalizations. A striking demonstration of how to blend theories of international relations with in-depth field research in hard places, this book is an important contribution to our understanding of the dynamics of civil wars." - Stathis N. Kalyvas, Yale University "Just when it seemed that the balance of power had become an old-fashioned concept in international politics, it turns out that it is alive and well as the crucial factor shaping alliance strategies in today's civil wars. Although warring groups from the Balkans to Afghanistan may justify their alliances in terms of shared cultural identities, Fotini Christia shows that choices of friends and foes are in fact decisively shaped by tactical calculations based on power politics. Her diverse research skills, ranging from field interviews with ruthless warlords to statistical analyses of civil war datasets, make this a lively and rigorous contribution to the study of war." - Jack Snyder, Columbia University