Preface xi
Acknowledgments xvii
Chapter 1 introduction to Buy and Hold 1
What Is Buy and Hold? 2
Who Should Buy and Hold? 2
My Numbers: Background and Terms 3
Now What? 3
Chapter 2 Stock Selection 5
What Comes After Large Price Moves? 6
Myth: Stocks That Drop Least in a Bear Market Then Soar 7
Stock Selection the Easy Way 8
Two Tips for Stock Selection 9
Buy Fallen Angels 10
What Chart Patterns Appear Before Mergers and Buyouts? 10
What Are Insiders Doing? 13
Chapter 3 Book Value 17
Book Value Defined 18
Value Assets Properly 18
Investing Using Book Value 19
When Is Book Value Important? 19
The Value of Hidden Assets 20
Limits of Book Value 21
Buybacks Lower Book Value 22
Historical Research 22
Price to Book Value: A Good Measure 24
Small Caps: Best Choice 25
Low Stock Price Rules! 27
Book Value and Return on Equity 28
What Is the Best Price to Book Value? 29
Combinations and Performance 30
Trading Strategy: Beating the Dow 31
The Eight-Stock Setup 32
Hold Time for Best Results 34
Chapter 4 Capital Spending 37
Is Decreasing Capital Spending the Holy Grail? 37
Capital Spending Trends versus Performance 38
Frequency Distribution 39
Performance by Market Cap 40
Chapter 5 Cash Flow 43
Historical Research Review 44
Cooking the Books 45
The Numbers 46
Is Increasing Cash Flow Good? 46
Performance by Market Cap 48
Chapter 6 Dividends 51
Stock Dividends: An Explanation 52
Historical Research Review 52
High Yield, High Performance? 53
Testing: Yield and Payout Ratio 54
Which Is Best: Dividends or No Dividends? 55
Surprise: Dividend Cuts Work! 55
When Disaster Strikes 57
Performance by Market Cap 58
Chapter 7 Long-Term Debt 61
The Numbers 61
Is Debt Good? 62
Sinking Ship: Taking on Debt 62
Debt by Market Capitalization 63
Chapter 8 Price-to-Earnings Ratio 67
History Lesson 67
Do Low P/E Stocks Outperform? 68
P/E Trends Down: Good or Bad? 69
Price and Earnings Combinations: Yawn 69
Buy Small Caps with Low P/E 70
High P/E: Time to Sell? 71
Three P/E Tips 71
Chapter 9 Price-to-Sales Ratio 73
Good Benchmark: PSRs Below 1.0 74
PSR Trend: Down Is Best 75
Small Caps, Small PSRs Rule! 75
Checklist: PSRs by Industry 77
Chapter 10 Return on Shareholders' Equity 81
Low ROE Stocks Outperform: Why? 82
ROE Trend Over Time: Yawn 83
ROE Performance by Market Capitalization 83
Chapter 11 Shares Outstanding 85
Performance versus Shares Outstanding 85
Event Pattern: Dutch Auction Tender Offers 87
Should You Sell? 87
Sell at What Price? 90
Event Pattern: Common Stock Offerings 91
Performance and Market Capitalization 93
Chapter 12 Fundamental Analysis Summary 95
Performance Rank: One-Year Hold 95
Performance Rank: Three-Year Hold 97
Performance Rank: Five-Year Hold 99
Chapter 13 How to Double Your Money 101
How Long to Double? 101
What Is the Best Buy Price? 102
Which Market Caps Do Best? 103
Focus on Fundamentals: Which Are Best? 104
Warning: Losses Ahead. What You Need to Know 110
Testing the Setup 112
Chapter 14 Finding 10-Baggers 115
How Long to 10x? 116
What Is Highest Starting Price? 116
What Happens the First Year? 117
Rising Over Time: How Fast? 118
10¿Baggers by Market Cap 119
Fundamental Ratios Common to 10¿Baggers 119
Industries Most Likely to Make 10¿Baggers 127
The Most Popular Years for 10¿Baggers 128
Surprising Finding about 10¿Bagger Losses 129
Backward Testing 129
Chapter 15 Trading 10-Baggers 133
10¿Bagger Birth 133
Life of a 10¿Bagger 139
10¿Bagger Death 150
Chart Patterns in 10¿Baggers 152
Chapter 16 Selling Buy and Hold 161
The Weinstein Setup 161
Example: The Southwest Airlines Trade 165
Example: Savient Pharmaceuticals 167
1¿2¿3 Trend Change for Downtrends 168
1¿2¿3 Trend Change for Uptrends 170
The Cloudbank Setup 172
Using Trailing Stops to Sell 178
Timely Trend¿Line Exits 180
Can Moving Averages Help? 181
Follow Insider Transactions 183
Selling: Two Ratio Tips 184
Selling Down from a High 185
Chapter 17 Fundamentals: What I Use 189
Two Book Value Tips 190
Do Not Get Singed by Burn Rate 190
Drop Capital Spending! 191
Current Ratio 2.0 191
Prospecting for Growth Using Dividends 191
Rising Earnings, Net Profit 192
P/E Ratio versus Industry 192
Litigation: Stop Pissing People Off! 193
Avoid Too Much Long¿Term Debt 193
Market Capitalization: Big Returns by Going Small 194
Research Spending 194
Sales? Think Money 195
Price¿töSales Ratio: What About Debt? 195
Stock Price: 5 to 20 195
Volume: Thin Ice Ahead! 196
Chapter 18 Introduction to Position Trading 199
What Is Position Trading? 199
Who Should Position Trade and Why? 200
What Position Trading Will Not Do 202
Example Position Trade 202
Chapter 19 Getting Started in Position Trading 207
Check the News or Lose! 208
Trend? What Trend? 209
Trade with the Primary Trend 211
Take Your Pick: Bottom Fishing or Momentum? 212
What Is Market Influence on Stocks? 213
What Chart Patterns Are Best for Position Trades? 214
Busted Chart Patterns Revisited 216
Trading Example: Finding Value in Disaster 218
Chapter 20 Ten Factors Make Chart Patterns Work 223
What Is a Double Bottom? 224
Ten Factors Revealed 226
Scoring System Checklist 232
Scoring Performance 232
Higher Scores Work Best 234
Case Study: Stillwater Mining 235
Case Study: LSB Industries 237
Case Study: Lumber Liquidators 238
Chapter 21 Three Winning Trades and a Funeral 243
The Intel Fiasco 244
Hudson Highland Hiccup 245
CNO Financial Group 248
Complete Production Services 250
Chapter 22 What Not to Do: Three Botched Trades 255
Medivation: Selling Too Late 255
Coldwater Creek: Selling Too Soon 258
Hovnanian: Selling at the Bottom 260
Chapter 23 What We Learned 265
Visual Appendix of Chart Patterns 283
Bibliography 289
About the Author 293
Index 295
