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Produktbild: Expected Returns
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Expected Returns An Investor's Guide to Harvesting Market Rewards

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Beschreibung

Produktdetails

Verkaufsrang

20038

Einband

Gebundene Ausgabe

Erscheinungsdatum

04.02.2011

Verlag

John Wiley & Sons

Seitenzahl

594

Maße (L/B/H)

25/17,5/3,6 cm

Gewicht

1192 g

Farbe

Schwarz / Seidengrau

Auflage

1. Auflage

Sprache

Englisch

ISBN

978-1-119-99072-7

Beschreibung

Produktdetails

Verkaufsrang

20038

Einband

Gebundene Ausgabe

Erscheinungsdatum

04.02.2011

Verlag

John Wiley & Sons

Seitenzahl

594

Maße (L/B/H)

25/17,5/3,6 cm

Gewicht

1192 g

Farbe

Schwarz / Seidengrau

Auflage

1. Auflage

Sprache

Englisch

ISBN

978-1-119-99072-7

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Die Leseprobe wird geladen.
  • Produktbild: Expected Returns
  • Foreword by Clifford Asness xi

    Acknowledgments xvii

    Abbreviations and acronyms xix

    Part I Overview, Historical Returns, and Academic Theories 1

    1 Introduction 3

    1.1 Historical performance 7

    1.2 Financial and behavioral theories: A brief history of ideas 9

    1.3 Forward-looking indicators 13

    1.4 View-based expected returns 15

    1.5 General comments about the book 16

    1.6 Notes 20

    2 Whetting the appetite: Historical averages and forward-looking returns 23

    2.1 Historical performance since 1990 24

    2.2 Sample-specific results: Dealing with the pitfalls 27

    2.3 Forward-looking return indicators 32

    2.4 Notes 35

    3 The historical record: The past 20 years in a longer perspective 37

    3.1 Stocks 39

    3.2 Bonds 43

    3.3 Real asset investing and active investing 47

    3.4 FX and money markets 50

    3.5 Real return histories 52

    3.6 Notes 52

    4 Road map to terminology 57

    4.1 Constant or time-varying expected returns? 57

    4.2 Rational or irrational expectations formation? 58

    4.3 Return measurement issues 59

    4.4 Returns in what currency? 60

    4.5 Risk-adjusted returns 61

    4.6 Biased returns 63

    4.7 Notes 63

    5 Rational theories on expected return determination 65

    5.1 The old world 66

    5.2 The new world 68

    5.3 Detour: a brief survey of the efficient markets hypothesis 81

    5.4 Notes 83

    6 Behavioral finance 87

    6.1 Limits to arbitrage 87

    6.2 Psychology 89

    6.3 Applications 98

    6.4 Conclusion 106

    6.5 Notes 107

    7 Alternative interpretations for return predictability 111

    7.1 Risk premia or market inefficiency 111

    7.2 Data mining and other "mirage'' explanations 112

    7.3 Notes 115

    Part II A Dozen Case Studies 117

    8 Equity risk premium 119

    8.1 Introduction and terminology 119

    8.2 Theories and the equity premium puzzle 120

    8.3 Historical equity premium 122

    8.4 Forward-looking (ex ante objective) long-term expected return measures 128

    8.5 Survey-based subjective expectations 141

    8.6 Tactical forecasting for market timing 144

    8.7 Notes 149

    9 Bond risk premium 153

    9.1 Introduction, terminology, and theories 153

    9.2 Historical average returns 157

    9.3 Alternative ex ante measures of the BRP 160

    9.4 Yield curve steepness: important predictive relations 161

    9.5 Explaining BRP behavior: first targets, then four drivers 164

    9.6 Tactical forecasting-duration timing 174

    9.7 Notes 177

    10 Credit risk premium 179

    10.1 Introduction, terminology, and theory 179

    10.2 Historical average excess returns 183

    10.3 Focus on front-end trading-a pocket of attractive reward to risk 188

    10.4 Understanding credit spreads and their drivers 191

    10.5 Tactical forecasting of corporate bond outperformance 198

    10.6 Assessing other non-government debt 199

    10.7 Concluding remarks 204

    10.8 Notes 205

    11 Alternative asset premia 207

    11.1 Introduction to alternatives 207

    11.2 Real estate 210

    11.3 Commodities 219

    11.4 Hedge funds 226

    11.5 Private equity funds 241

    11.6 Notes 245

    12 Value-oriented equity selection 249

    12.1 Introduction to dynamic strategies 249

    12.2 Equity value: introduction and historical performance 251

    12.3 Tweaks including style timing 258

    12.4 The reasons value works 261

    12.5 Does the value strategy work in equities beyond individual stock selection or in market or sector selection in other asset classes? 265

    12.6 Relations between value and other indicators for equity selection 267

    12.7 Notes 268

    13 Currency carry 271

    13.1 Introduction 271

    13.2 Historical average returns 272

    13.3 Improvements/refinements to the baseline carry strategy 276

    13.4 Why do carry strategies work? 282

    13.5 Carry here, carry there, carry everywhere 288

    13.6 Notes 290

    14 Commodity momentum and trend following 293

    14.1 Introduction 293

    14.2 Performance of simple commodity momentum strategies 294

    14.3 Tweaks 298

    14.4 Why does momentum-such a naive strategy-work? 299

    14.5 Momentum in other asset classes 301

    14.6 Notes 305

    15 Volatility selling (on equity indices) 307

    15.1 Introduction 307

    15.2 Historical performance of volatility-trading strategies 311

    15.3 Tweaks/Refinements 314

    15.4 The reasons volatility selling is profitable 315

    15.5 Other assets 319

    15.6 Notes 319

    16 Growth factor and growth premium 321

    16.1 Introduction to underlying factors in Chapters 16-19 321

    16.2 Introduction to the growth factor 327

    16.3 Theory and evidence on growth 328

    16.4 Asset market relations 331

    16.5 Time-varying growth premium 338

    16.6 Notes 338

    17 Inflation factor and inflation premium 341

    17.1 Introduction 341

    17.2 Inflation process-history, determinants, expectations 345

    17.3 Inflation sensitivity of major asset classes and the inflation premium 350

    17.4 Time-varying inflation premium 356

    17.5 Notes 356

    18 Liquidity factor and illiquidity premium 359

    18.1 Introduction 359

    18.2 Factor history: how does liquidity itself vary over time? 362

    18.3 Historical evidence on average liquidity-related premia 365

    18.4 Time-varying illiquidity premia 370

    18.5 Note 374

    19 Tail risks (volatility, correlation, skewness) 375

    19.1 Introduction 375

    19.2 Factor history 378

    19.3 Historical evidence on average asset returns vs. volatility and correlation 380

    19.4 Theory and evidence on the skewness premium 389

    19.5 Verdict on why high-volatility assets fare so poorly 392

    19.6 Time-varying premia for tail risk exposures 395

    19.7 Notes 396

    Part III Back to Broader Themes 399

    20 Endogenous return and risk: Feedback effects on expected returns 401

    20.1 Feedback loops on the direction of risky assets 401

    20.2 Feedback loops on less directional positions 403

    20.3 Agenda for market timers and researchers 405

    20.4 Notes 407

    21 Forward-looking measures of asset returns 409

    21.1 Popular value and carry indicators and their pitfalls 410

    21.2 Building blocks of expected returns 413

    21.3 Notes 416

    22 Interpreting carry or non-zero yield spreads 419

    22.1 Introduction 419

    22.2 Future excess returns or market expectations? 420

    22.3 Empirical horse races for various assets 424

    22.4 Conclusions 428

    22.5 Notes 429

    23 Survey-based subjective expected returns 431

    23.1 Notes 435

    24 Tactical return forecasting models 437

    24.1 Introduction 437

    24.2 What type of model? 438

    24.3 Which assets/trades? 441

    24.4 Which indicator types? 442

    24.5 Enhancements and pitfalls 443

    24.6 Notes 444

    25 Seasonal regularities 445

    25.1 Seasonal, cyclical, and secular patterns in asset returns 445

    25.2 Monthly seasonals and the January effect 446

    25.3 Other seasonals 453

    26 Cyclical variation in asset returns 457

    26.1 Typical behavior of realized returns and ex ante indicators through the business cycle 458

    26.2 Typical behavior of realized returns and ex ante indicators across different economic regimes 461

    26.3 Notes 465

    27 Secular trends and the next 20 years 467

    27.1 Contrasting 1988-2007 with 1968-1987 467

    27.2 Reversible and sustainable secular trends 468

    27.3 The next 20 years 474

    27.4 Notes 478

    28 Enhancing returns through managing risks, horizon, skill, and costs 479

    28.1 Introduction: how can investors enhance returns? 479

    28.2 Risk 482

    28.3 Investment horizon 492

    28.4 Skill 496

    28.5 Costs 499

    28.6 Notes 501

    29 Takeaways for long-horizon investors 503

    29.1 Key takeaways from theory 504

    29.2 Empirical return sources 504

    29.3 My take on key debates 506

    29.4 Know thyself: large long-horizon investors' natural edges 512

    29.5 Institutional practices 513

    29.6 Notes 514

    Appendices 515

    A World wealth 515

    A.1 Global total 516

    A.2 Asset class detail 516

    A.3 Notes 518

    B Data sources and data series construction 519

    B.1 Asset class and sector returns 519

    B.2 Strategy style returns 521

    B.3 Factor proxies 522

    B.4 Forward-looking yields and spreads 523

    B.5 Survey data and expected inflation 523

    B.6 Miscellaneous other 524

    Bibliography 527

    Index 551